Channel-level projections with confidence intervals your finance team can stand behind, built for full-year planning and goal setting.
How does January Digital approach revenue forecasting?
A revenue number without a model behind it is a guess. We build the model, tested against real data, with confidence intervals, so clients plan around a range they can defend rather than a single number they cannot explain.
We test 9+ forecasting algorithms, including LightGBM, Prophet, Chronos, and TimesFM, head to head on every engagement and select the one with the lowest error for each client’s specific data. No defaults, no assumptions, no one-size-fits-all approach.
What does the forecasting process look like?
We gather historical revenue, spend, and seasonality data, engineer 50+ features automatically including lags, rolling statistics, holiday effects, and spend regressors, and run all models head to head using cross-validated accuracy testing. Every forecast is delivered with 90% confidence intervals and year over year projections at the channel level, giving finance and marketing teams a shared, evidence-based foundation for planning.
How is this different from internal forecasting?
Most internal forecasts are built on last year’s performance plus an assumption. Ours are built on statistical models that account for channel interactions, diminishing returns, seasonality, and spend levels simultaneously. The result is a forecast that does not just tell you where revenue will land, but what you need to do to hit your targets and where current spend levels will and will not move the needle.
When does revenue forecasting make the most sense?
Forecasting is most valuable heading into budget season when teams need targets they can defend, when internal and agency forecasts diverge and someone needs to be the tiebreaker, or when a brand wants to understand whether current investment levels are sufficient to hit their goals.
What results has January Digital driven for clients through revenue forecasting?
For Carhartt, we delivered a $391M+ revenue forecast across 11 channels for FY26 to 27 at 18% CV MAPE. For LAKE, our topline forecast landed within 0.6% of the client’s own internal model, validating the approach and building confidence in forward planning.