Client: Anonymized Apparel Brand
Services: Analytics, Geo Experimentation & Measurement, Incrementality Testing, Budget Reallocation Strategy, Platform Benchmarking
Overview and Challenges:
Anonymized Apparel Brand, a digitally native apparel company, partnered with January Digital to modernize its measurement framework and understand the true causal impact of media investments. Historically, the brand relied on click-based attribution and platform-reported metrics, which masked the real value of key channels amid signal loss and evolving privacy restrictions.
January Digital hypothesized that the brand was overinvested in Meta, particularly in conversion-optimized campaigns, and sought to validate whether budget reallocations could drive stronger, more incremental growth.
Goals:
- Measure the causal impact of Meta Prospecting Conversion and Nonbrand Performance Max on net sales
- Validate or challenge existing budget allocations
- Enable data-driven budget reallocation toward the most incremental channels
- Build internal confidence in a modern measurement approach and test-and-learn culture
Our Work:
- Executed Geo-Based Incrementality Tests
January Digital executed two geography-based holdout tests to isolate the incremental contribution of Meta Prospecting Conversion and Nonbrand Performance Max campaigns. The tests were designed collaboratively with the client, launching at the end of May 2025 and concluding in late June and early July. - Applied Synthetic Control Methodology
Using a synthetic control methodology, January Digital combined and weighted geographic regions to simulate a user-level study without requiring personal data. This approach allowed for robust causal inference despite increasing privacy constraints. - Designed for Statistical Strength and Business Safety
Test markets were carefully selected to exclude regions affected by major sales or promotions. This ensured the tests would yield valid, actionable results without disrupting key business moments. - Maintained Testing Cadence Through Operational Agility
Quickly navigated platform limitations and evolving technical constraints to keep tests on track, adapting test design in real-time without compromising accuracy or timing. - Established a Scalable Measurement Framework
January Digital guided the brand through the full testing lifecycle spanning planning, execution, and analysis while educating internal stakeholders on advanced measurement. These first tests served as a blueprint for future incrementality testing and upcoming post–BFCM remeasurement initiatives.
Results and Business Impact:
- Nonbrand Performance Max delivered an approximate 5x higher incremental ROAS (iROAS) than Meta Prospecting Conversion.
- Following budget reallocations based on test outcomes, the brand beat its MER (Marketing Efficiency Ratio) goal by 6% in August 2025.
- Validated a shift in investment from Meta Prospecting Conversion to Nonbrand Performance Max, improving overall efficiency.
- Delivered the brand’s first-ever incrementality results, creating confidence in structured, data-backed decision making.
- Helped internal teams embrace a test-and-learn mindset and deepen understanding of the limitations of click-based attribution.
- Positioned the brand for continued evolution in measurement sophistication, including future geo testing and MMM integration.
