Client: Anonymized Retail Property Company
Services: Analytics, Incrementality Testing, Media Mix Optimization, Measurement Strategy, MMM Enablement
Overview and Challenges:
Anonymized Retail Property Company, a leading operator of open-air outlet shopping centers, partnered with January Digital to establish a modern, causal measurement foundation capable of guiding more efficient media investment across its national footprint. Historically, the company relied on website traffic campaigns and platform-reported performance. However, with growing investment in Meta, YouTube, and TikTok and a need to understand which tactics truly drove in-person traffic, the company sought a more rigorous approach to evaluating media effectiveness.
To address this, January Digital designed and executed the company’s first incrementality test. The team launched a multicell geo-holdout experiment to measure the causal impact of two Meta strategies: campaigns optimized Estimated Ad Recall Lift, which focuses on reaching audiences in a way that increases ad recall, and campaigns optimized for website traffic, which focus on driving clicks. This approach allowed the company to understand which tactic more effectively increased physical center visits, serving as the foundation for a long-term measurement program, including a broader testing roadmap and an upcoming media mix model rollout.
Goals:
- Identify the most efficient media mix to increase incremental visits to the company’s outlet centers
- Validate whether shifting Meta investment from website traffic campaigns to ad recall campaigns would drive greater incremental impact
- Build a robust set of incrementality learnings to strengthen the company’s MMM launching in January 2026
- Increase internal confidence in data-driven, causal measurement methodologies
Our Work:
- Launched the Company’s First Multicell Geo-Holdout Incrementality Test
January Digital designed and executed a multicell geo-holdout test comparing Meta ad recall and Meta traffic campaigns. Using a synthetic control methodology, we simulated the rigor of a randomized controlled trial, enabling the company to measure true incremental impact even without user-level tracking. - Applied Synthetic Control Methodology for Statistical Confidence
Advanced synthetic control modeling established precise test and control groups across U.S. geographies. This approach enabled the company to evaluate media impact on in-person traffic while accounting for real-world variables such as weather and local events. - Built Internal Fluency in Causal Measurement
As the company’s first incrementality test, the January Digital team guided stakeholders through each stage from planning to analysis to build trust, clarity, and comfort with modern measurement techniques. This foundation now empowers the company to confidently pursue a test-and-learn strategy. - Established a Long-Term Measurement Roadmap
The results of this initial test unlocked momentum for a broader 2026 testing program and laid the groundwork for the company’s upcoming MMM. The team aligned on an ongoing cadence of measurement, including future tests leveraging the company’s new Customer Data Platform (CDP).
Results and Business Impact:
- Ad recall campaigns achieved an incremental cost per traffic of $0.23, delivering strong efficiency for an offline traffic-based incrementality test where costs often range over $1.
- Ad recall campaigns drove incremental traffic at more than 90% lower cost than Traffic campaigns, performing over 16x more efficiently and clearly demonstrating that ad recall delivers significantly greater incremental lift.
- The magnitude of this efficiency gap validated a strategic pivot in the company’s media mix, leading the team to immediately pause all Traffic campaigns and reallocate budget into ad recall to maximize incremental performance.
- Delivered the company’s first causal read on Meta investment, giving the organization a clear and confident understanding of which tactics truly drive incremental foot traffic.
- Increased internal alignment around a test-and-learn culture, with stakeholders gaining comfort and enthusiasm for ongoing experimentation.
- Informed the company’s Custom CDP rollout, reinforcing the importance of validating all new activation strategies through causal testing before scaling.
- Established the foundation for the company’s long-term measurement ecosystem, including a continued testing roadmap throughout 2026 and the MMM launching in January 2026.
